Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin at an event in Belfast last year. Photo by Peter Morrison, Press Eye
IF the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different outcomes, a review of election results in Ireland, north and south, would prove interesting for a psychoanalyst.
For most of its existence, Northern Ireland’s bread-and-butter issues between elections have been trumped at the ballot box by tribal considerations.
The results in the Republic’s general election last month show that southern voters can also be stuck in their ways, albeit nowhere close to the polarisation of their northern counterparts.
Since the civil war parties of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael agreed a government coalition for the first time in the state’s history in 2020, numerous polls and the commentariat have expressed dissatisfaction over the handling of issues including housing, health, the rising cost of living, and immigration.
A widely held view of the American presidential election is that Donald Trump was able to defeat Kamala Harris partly because Democrats had lost touch with ordinary Americans’ day-to-day concerns.
But in the Republic’s election, voters didn’t opt for change; at least not major change.
There’s now a little bit of a game of musical chairs around the Cabinet table. Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin defied the predictions and, indeed, exit polls by emerging as the leader in the strongest position.
Fine Gael, led by Simon Harris, continued its decline of recent years, while the Greens were virtually wiped out - following the well-worn path of a smaller party paying the price for going into a coalition government.
It looks as though the Taoiseach’s office may rotate again, despite Fine Gael coming in third in Dáil seats.
The performance which is causing most comment is Sinn Féin.
After a surprisingly good 2020 election, it doesn’t seem that long ago that the party was sitting at 30 per cent plus in opinion polls, with Mary Lou McDonald being talked about as potentially the next Taoiseach.
This year, Sinn Féin confused the electorate over its immigration policy – leading to poor local election results in the summer - and has been beset by a string of internal scandals.
The party still performed better than expected and ended up with 39 seats, the second highest number in the Dáil, and one ahead of Fine Gael.
However, it’s not the position that Sinn Féin had hoped to be in and they’re a party which does internal reflection more seriously than most.
Some members are privately saying that they should have tried to build more of a left-wing alliance ahead of the election and there’s already speculation that, after two election defeats, Mary Lou McDonald may find an honourable way out by contesting next year’s election for President of Ireland.
Essentially, the picture at Leinster House is more of the same, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael back in Government and Sinn Féin as the main opposition voice, though both Labour and the Social Democrats have strengthened their position.
The performance of convicted criminal, Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch, who was in contention for a seat in Dublin Central after he got more than 3,000 first preference votes, may have been something of an outlier.
But it signals a protest at the establishment’s handling of issues, including poverty, health and housing.
It’s no coincidence that Sinn Fein’s most able TDs and media performers are housing spokesman Eoin Ó Broin, and health spokesman David Cullinane.
Or that Sinn Féin did well in border areas, including Donegal and Cavan-Monaghan, that feel isolated from Dublin.
The issue of constitutional change may not have been a major issue in the election campaign.
But moves towards a new Ireland are increasingly becoming part of the political agenda.
There may be a difference in emphasis, but whether improving the Shared Island initiative, endorsing the idea of a Department of Unification, making unity an objective rather than an aspiration, or working toward a referendum, all parties are conscious of momentum in the conversation.
Change is happening, despite an election result which suggests otherwise.