Rosalind Skillen: How will Sinn Féin scandals affect the party's election chances?

IT'S been a bad few weeks for Sinn Féin.

In Northern Ireland, the party is facing continued questions over how it has handled the case of one of its former press officers, Michael McMonagle, who pleaded guilty to a series of child sex offences last month.

Two Sinn Féin press officers provided references to McMonagle when he was applying for a job at the British Heart Foundation.

Those press officers later resigned days after it emerged they had given references.

In the Republic, controversy also rumbles on.

First, over the resignation of Patricia Ryan, the TD for Kildare South, last week. Ms Ryan said she felt “undermined” and “curtailed” by the party and will be running as an Independent in the next election.

Talking to Kildare Today, she said that her questions had to be vetted in advance, suggesting the party runs a tight ship.

By contrast, the handling of the McMonagle affair has been characterised by confusion, claims and counter-claims.

Over the weekend, the party was hit by a further scandal over the resignation of Brian Stanley, the Laois-Offaly TD.

Party leader Mary Lou McDonald said a complaint was made about Mr Stanley at the end of July.

The party carried out an internal process and later referred the complaint and a counter allegation to gardaí.

But Minister for Children Roderic O'Gorman, the leader of the Green Party, has questioned why Sinn Féin referred the issue to gardaí now and not when it was first made aware of it.

Just yesterday, former Belfast lord mayor and ex-senator Niall Ó Donnghaile admitted he sent inappropriate text messages to a teenager last year.

He said the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) was notified but no formal complaint was received.

The challenges for Ms McDonald and her party are mounting against the backdrop of poor results in the local and European elections, when Sinn Féin did not perform as well as expected.

In September’s snapshot poll, conducted for the Irish Times by Ipsos B&A, Sinn Féin support was down three points and Ms McDonald’s personal ratings have slid by six points down to 30%, below Fine Gael leader Simon Harris and Fianna Fáil's Micheál Martin

Sinn Féin is a 32-county party, but there is clearly a disjunction in terms of policy and strategy north and south of the border.

This dissonance is demonstrated not only in the differing electoral success of the party north and south, and the appeal of President and Vice President (a poll from the Sunday Independent and Ireland Thinks revealed that Michelle O’Neill was 16 points more popular than Mary Lou McDonald) but also in their diverging policy positions.

For example, Sinn Féin approved a ban on puberty blockers for under 18-year-olds in Northern Ireland, a position which is at odds with the Republic’s approach. This, perhaps, reflects more broadly the different views of voters in Northern Ireland and the Republic, where voters are more socially liberal.

With a seemingly functional Assembly, it will be interesting to see how the party addresses the sometimes diametrically opposed views in their voter base on different issues. We may see more of what some have called “dual policy” or “cross-border hopping” in relation to the party’s diverging positions north and south.

It’s also worth noting that Sinn Féin is in a different position now, facing into a general election, than it was during the 2020 election.

In 2020, Sinn Féin grew in popularity as a voice on housing. As part of the left-leaning opposition, Sinn Féin positioned themselves as the ‘Government in waiting’.

The party continues to highlight important issues around inequality and social deprivation that need to be addressed, but now they face a different set of circumstances. The current Government is operating with less budget constraint and increased public spending, particularly following this month’s Budget.

Ultimately, politics is churn and change. The issues facing Sinn Féin right now, some of which are about the way the party operates internally, may not be what comes up on the doors in an election campaign.

But, with a party driven by different dynamics across the 32 counties, it will be interesting to see how Sinn Féin’s performance in an Irish general election will not only impact policy and people in Northern Ireland, but also be impacted by them.

Rosalind Skillen is an environmental activist and writer @rosalindskillen